Download An Introduction to Simple Climate Models used in the IPCC by JT Houghton, LG Meira Filho, DJ Griggs and K Maskell (Eds). PDF

By JT Houghton, LG Meira Filho, DJ Griggs and K Maskell (Eds).

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Extra resources for An Introduction to Simple Climate Models used in the IPCC Second Assessment Report (IPCC Technical Paper II - February 1997)

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3, the dependence of the CH4 lifetime on CH4 concentration is affected by the concurrent concentrations of NOx, CO and VOCs in the atmosphere, which vary significantly between regions. 3), these emissions were assumed to be constant. This feedback is based on calculations using three-dimensional models, as discussed by Osborn and Wigley (1994). The currently estimated CH4 lifetime is given in Appendix 1. 3) projections of global mean temperature and sea level. If soil absorption was the only removal process, the average lifespan of methane in the atmosphere would be about 150 years.

Although this is not exactly true, the error so introduced is overwhelmed by uncertainties in the link between atmospheric aerosol loading and global mean radiative forcing. 5). 12). In the latter case, total anthropogenic sulphur emissions will increase from 75 TgS in 1990 to 147 TgS in 2100. 2 W m-2), then is held constant. 5 27 Calculating Radiative Forcing From Concentrations Given the concentrations of globally uniform greenhouse gases, the direct radiative forcing can be computed by using simple formulae which provide a close fit to the results of detailed radiative transfer calculations.

3 Uncertainties in Sea Level Projections Uncertainties in the thermal expansion component of global mean sea level change are linked with those of surface temperature change itself, because thermal expansion is computed from the variation of ocean temperature change with depth. 5˚C, the uncertainty in thermal expansion is about a factor of two over the next century. The main uncertainties in deriving the land ice contribution to sea level rise from global mean temperature 30 27 Total Thermal expansion Glaciers/ice caps Greenland Antarctica 25 20 Sea level change (cm) Studies of well-observed glaciers indicate that glaciers in a wetter climate are more sensitive to changes in air temperature than glaciers in dry regions.

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